For an audience familiar with the internal realities of Azerbaijan’s politics and economy, its country profile will highlight its potential to influence regional projects and energy policies. But, it will also entirely explain accelerated military sector investment1, argued by the extended war from the Nagorno Karabakh region. An in-depth analysis will also show that Azerbaijan is developing in a dynamic environment, conditioned by the evolution of foreign policy and national security of neighbouring countries, which means that it must face several challenges to ensure harmonious development. Despite its high energy potential, the structure of government, proximity to the foreign military presence, Russia’s hybrid activities in the region, and prolongation of the Nagorno-Karabakh war, Azerbaijan’s exposure to hybrid threats dramatically reduces the number of economic opportunities.
“Hybrid warfare” and the factors that determine it has become an increasingly used concept in the public sphere to assess the impact of the intervention of a foreign actor in the internal affairs of the states it considers to be part of its sphere of influence. The content of decisions to counteract the effects of this type of war, which considers military and paramilitary threats and civil security challenges, must be thoroughly analyzed by political actors facing these risks to deal with them. An essential thing in this reflection exercise is recognizing that government authorities must study and monitor military threats and those related to the resilience of internal public institutions and the specific challenges faced by foreign partners or opponents.
Thus, this policy paper aims to organize a process of reflections on the elements or factors that may lead to increased risks associated with “hybrid warfare”: military capabilities, resources and training needs of military personnel, access to technology, foreign military presence and military bases close to national borders, solid public institutions, resilient to political, economic and social threats and challenges.
Authors: Angela Grămadă, Cătălin-Gabriel Done
Edited by: Ziya Guliyev
This paper is prepared in the framework of the Project ‘Enhancing civil society’s role on addressing hybrid threats’, implemented by the Law Society of Azerbaijan (LSA) in close partnership with the Experts for Security and Global Affairs Association (ESGA/ Romania) with the support of the Black Sea Trust for Regional Cooperation and the European Union. Cover photo credits: LSA