After eight years in power, Polish voters were not interested in continuing Law and Justice’s governance of Poland. Supporters of the EU have been celebrating as the opposition of Law and Justice is likely to work with the European Union rather than actively work against it as Law and Justice has since it was voted into power in 2015. As PiS won the most votes they will be able to attempt to build a coalition first, yet it is likely to fail. This is because Civic Coalition, Third Way, and the New Left received enough votes to build their own coalition and have made their intentions clear of doing this. The result of this would be that Law and Justice would only be able to build a coalition with Confederation, a far-right coalition that consists of two smaller parties. This coalition would not have enough seats in the Sejm (Polish Parliament) and would not be able to form a ruling coalition. Donald Tusk who currently leads the Civic Coalition is the top candidate to be the next prime minister.
Poland-Ukraine Relationship
Under Law and Justice, Poland’s relationship with Ukraine started to sour due to trade. Instead of creating a unilateral ban, Donald Tusk claims he would have done more to resolve the issue within the European Union, as it should have been considering the EU has exclusive competency over international trade. This indicates that Donald Tusk will likely not agree to everything leaders of other member states and politicians from the European Union think, yet he will aim to negotiate issues rather than take actions that place Poland in hot water with the European Union. Tusk has also made it clear that Civic Coalition supports Ukraine and stated that “is no alternative to a pro-Ukrainian policy,”. This could reverse the decline in the relationship between Poland and Ukraine, despite the full hearted support Law and Justice had for Ukraine initially, allowing almost a million Ukrainian refugees to register in Poland.
Unfreezing EU Funds
A significant benefit of ousting Law and Justice from power will be Poland’s ability to reverse judicial reforms made by Law and Justice, threatening the independence of Poland’s judiciary. This has led to 100 billion euros worth of funds being frozen over concerns of the rule of law in Poland. These funds are crucial in order to continue to support Poland’s rapid economic growth and economic convergence with wealthier member states, such as Germany. As Donald Tusk was previously the President of the European Council, it is likely he can quickly win favor with the European Union and convince that Poland is changing course.
EU’s Strictest Abortion Legislation
Poland has seen multiple protests related to the nation’s legislation regarding abortions. Abortion has been illegal within the nation since 1993. In 2020, the Constitutional Tribunal made the law stricter by removing fetal abnormalities as a permissible reason for abortion. The law has been heavily criticized by activists who want women to be able to make a decision for themselves regarding abortion but also by widowers who allege their wives would still be alive if they were allowed to get abortions to save their lives. While abortion is currently legal if the mother’s life or health is at risk, doctors are fearful of carrying out the procedure. This is because doctors determined to have wrongfully done an abortion can be punished with a prison sentence with a maximum of 3 years.
This can be expected to change after the election as Tusk has promised that this would be a priority of his party if it won the election. Similar to many EU member states, abortions can be expected to be legal up to 12 weeks. His success in doing this will depend on the Third Way, as some members of this party are not in favor of abortion. The Third Way proposes that Poland should have a national referendum on abortion and allow citizens to decide. The New Left however is against holding a referendum, however the Third Way has an excellent point of why a referendum may be necessary. Poland’s government is semi-Presidential and the current President, Andrzej Duda is a member of Law and Justice. The next presidential election will not be until mid-2025, and Duda is ineligible for reelection due to having already been elected twice. This would allow him to veto an abortion law passed by the new Polish Parliament, yet the social pressure would be much greater if a new more liberal abortion law was passed by referendum. According to a poll from last November, 70 percent of Polish citizens support abortion up to 12 weeks.
As the Polish people would directly express their thoughts on the topic, it would be far more riskier for President Andrzej Duda to veto a law proposed by the public. Polish citizens have demonstrated their willingness to protest but a veto could also risk the political future of Law and Justice ever being able to become part of the ruling coalition ever again after future elections. Vetos require a three-fifths majority of the members of the Polish Parliament to overturn a presidential veto. As Law and Justice won 194 seats which are equal to 42 percent of the seats in the Polish Parliament, Law and Justice would be able to prevent a presidential veto from being overturned until the next presidential election, and there is no guarantee that Law and Justice will lose that election either.
Third Way Potential Spoiler On Multiple Issues
Besides Abortion, the Third way is unlikely to agree with Civic Coalition and the New Left on multiple issues. The Third Way thinks of itself as another choice for Polish voters who are not keen on either Law and Justice or Civic Coalition. While the Third Way has made it clear it has no interest in forming a coalition with Law and Justice due to its actions over the previous eight years, it cannot be expected it will make things easy for the Civic Coalition either. Third Way has not made its thoughts clear on LGBT rights during the campaign season but it is considered more conservative than Civic Coalition. It has been suggested that the Third Way would not support civil partnerships for LGBT couples, unlike Civic Coalition and the New left. Instead, the Third Way is more concerned primarily with improving the national economy, healthcare, and citizens. This is evident from the political party 2050’s website, one of the parties that make up the Third Way.
LGBT Rights
While not playing a central role in PiS’ campaign before the recent election, Poland became famous internationally for its LGBT free zones. While Poland will very likely become more LGBT friendly under the potential coalition government, gay marriage is unlikely to happen just yet. Instead, Donald Tusk has mentioned Poland recognizing same sex civil partnerships. Tusk seems to view this as a necessary step before gay marriage is finally an option in Poland. This would still be a major change for Poland which is currently rated as the worst EU member state for the LGBT community according to the organization Rainbow Europe. The Civic Coalition would also like to change the procedure for Polish citizens to change their legal gender. The problem is, the Civic Coalition already attempted this in 2015, but President Duda vetoed the bill. He can do the same now until his term ends in 2025. Currently to change their gender, Polish people must sue their parents, even if they are already deceased. The New Left on the other hand is the political party which, if it could, would grant the most rights to the LGBT community in Poland.
Bridging the Political Divide in Poland
As several political issues are highly contentious, it is unlikely that the gap between political parties will quickly disappear. The Third Way states this as a priority and it aims to do so by ensuring political appointments are based on merit rather than party membership. The problem is this does not address the fact that voters have drastically different views on political issues. It is essentially impossible to find common ground between one voter who wants to maintain Poland’s current ban on almost all abortions with a voter who supports women being able to have an abortion up to 12 weeks into the pregnancy, regardless of the woman’s motivation.
Another significant issue that has divided Poland is the controversial judicial reforms created by Law and Justice. The proposed coalition would reverse these judicial reforms and Donald Tusk already stated that this would be a top priority if the coalition won the election. Donald Tusk also indicated that the judges appointed by Law and Justice to the Constitutional Tribunal will be dismissed. The coalition would repeal all judicial reforms made by Law and Justice, which were already ruled as undermining judicial independence by the European Union Court of Justice. Undoing these reforms would likely anger Law and Justice supporters yet allow Poland to receive the frozen EU funds. There is no telling whether Law and Justice would accept a loss on this issue or if it would attempt to reenact the judicial reforms if it were to win a parliamentary majority after a future election. Law and Justice viewed these reforms as necessary in order to eliminate traces of communism in Poland and also to protect the nation’s Catholic identity. President Duda can also again use his veto power however to reject any changes by the future Polish Parliament to undo the judicial reforms.
Conclusion
While it can be expected that there will be a drastic shift in the Polish government’s attitude toward the European Union, people need to realize that the Civic Coalition is still center-right. Third Way can also potentially act as a spoiler and a coalition between Civic Coalition, Third Way, and the New Left will not not necessarily be a harmonious partnership as outsiders watching Poland may expect. Poland can be expected to respect European Union legislation under the likely coalition that will form and govern Poland yet it will still lean more to the right on several issues than progressive may prefer. It is much easier to state political objectives parties have than achieving these objectives through legislation as elections from around the world have proven over the years. President Duda can also limit actions taken by the parliament due to having veto power over legislation.
About author:
Nicholas Zalewski is a Phd Student at Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II in Public Policies for Cohesion and Convergence in the European Scenario. He is the Editor-in-Chief for The New Global Order, a student-run think tank registered as an NGO in Italy. He also writes a column entitled Let’s Tune In To The EU’s Periphery for The New Global Order. In addition, he writes a column entitled European Central for Modern Treatise, an online magazine. Nicholas is a polyglot who speaks Spanish, Italian, Brazilian Portuguese, and Bosnian-Croatian-Serbian besides being a native English speaker from Chicago.